India CPI Inflation Analysis

Monthly Report — January 2026

Author

Inflation Analysis Series

Published

February 13, 2026

Executive Summary

Metric Value
Reference Month January 2026
CPI Index (General) 104.46
Headline YoY Inflation 2.74%
Headline MoM Change 0.35%
Food & Beverages YoY 2.12%
Core CPI YoY 3.41%

1 — Division-Level Overview

The table below ranks all CPI divisions by their Year-over-Year inflation for the latest available month.

Division Index MoM % YoY %
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services 122.63 +5.23 +19.02
CPI (Ex Veggies and Cereals) 105.42 +0.63 +3.80
Core CPI 105.05 +0.67 +3.41
Education services 105.33 +0.08 +3.35
CPI (Excluding Food and Beverages) 104.66 +0.61 +3.14
CPI Excluding Food and Beverages 104.72 +0.58 +3.12
CPI (Excluding Paan Tobacco and Intoxicants) 104.47 +0.35 +3.07
Clothing and footwear 105.92 +0.15 +2.97
Core (Ex Gold) 104.44 +0.56 +2.87
Paan, tobacco and intoxicants 104.42 +0.30 +2.87
Restaurants and accommodation services 105.71 +0.18 +2.86
CPI (General) 104.46 +0.35 +2.74
Recreation, sport and culture 104.03 +0.31 +2.32
Health 103.91 +0.13 +2.18
Food and beverages 104.03 -0.04 +2.12
Core (Ex Gold and Silver) 103.38 +0.15 +1.89
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 102.02 +0.13 +1.53
Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 102.97 +0.14 +1.45
Information and communication 103.30 +0.02 +0.16
Transport 100.64 +0.07 +0.09

YoY Inflation by Division

Figure 1: Year-over-Year inflation across CPI divisions

Key CPI Measures

Figure 2: Comparison of headline, core, and exclusion-based CPI measures

2 — Month-on-Month Heatmaps

Heatmaps show the monthly price momentum across the CPI hierarchy. Green cells indicate month-on-month deflation; red cells indicate acceleration.

Figure 3: Month-on-Month inflation heatmap — Division level
Figure 4: Month-on-Month inflation heatmap — Group level
Figure 5: Month-on-Month inflation heatmap — Class level
Figure 6: Month-on-Month inflation heatmap — Sub-class level

3 — Inflation Dispersion Analysis

How evenly is inflation spread across the CPI basket? This section examines item-level data weighted by CPI basket shares.

Key Dispersion Metrics

Metric Value
Items analysed 227
Weighted Mean Inflation 2.59%
Weighted Median Inflation 1.93%
Weighted Std Deviation 14.56%
Basket in Deflation (<0%) 14.4%
Basket in Low Inflation (0-2%) 40.2%
Basket in Moderate (2-4%) 30.7%
Basket in High (4-6%) 6.2%
Basket in Extreme (>6%) 8.4%

Inflation Distribution — Item Count vs Basket Weight

Figure 7: Distribution of items across inflation buckets (count vs weight share)

Bubble Chart — Item-Level Dispersion

Figure 8: Each bubble is a CPI item; size reflects basket weight, colour reflects division

4 — Division Contributions Over Time

Figure 9: Stacked area showing each division’s weighted contribution to monthly CPI momentum

5 — Top Contributors

Top 20 Inflation Drivers

Division Item YoY % Weight Score
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services Silver jewellery 159.68 0.3127 49.92
Food and beverages Tomato 64.79 0.4961 32.14
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services Gold /diamond /platinum jewellery 46.77 0.6230 29.14
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels House Rent 1.93 10.8850 21.03
Food and beverages Chicken 10.42 1.5752 16.42
Food and beverages Milk: liquid 2.88 5.2552 15.12
Food and beverages Brinjal 25.14 0.2912 7.32
Food and beverages Fish and prawn 6.74 1.0223 6.89
Food and beverages Green chillies 16.80 0.2379 4.00
Clothing and footwear Tailor 4.10 0.8674 3.56
Food and beverages Lady's finger 13.96 0.2488 3.47
Food and beverages Goat meat/ mutton 5.08 0.6825 3.47
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels LPG cylinder and piped natural gas 1.72 1.9814 3.41
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Residential building and land (minor repairs) 3.47 0.7796 2.71
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Firewood and chips 3.03 0.8718 2.64
Food and beverages Sugar 4.61 0.4966 2.29
Clothing and footwear Saree 4.20 0.5281 2.22
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services Barber, beautician and spas 3.08 0.7154 2.20
Clothing and footwear Shirts, T-shirts, Kurta (gents) 3.19 0.6766 2.16
Paan, tobacco and intoxicants Country liquor 4.91 0.3959 1.94

Top 20 Deflation Drivers

Division Item YoY % Weight Score
Food and beverages Potato -28.99 0.7549 -21.88
Food and beverages Onion -29.27 0.7006 -20.51
Food and beverages Garlic -53.05 0.3738 -19.83
Food and beverages Arhar, tur -24.90 0.5333 -13.28
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Electricity charges -1.98 2.3277 -4.61
Food and beverages Cumin (jeera) -10.77 0.3655 -3.94
Transport Motor car and jeep -6.75 0.4665 -3.15
Transport Motor cycle and scooter -3.35 0.6581 -2.20
Food and beverages Peas -15.56 0.1254 -1.95
Food and beverages Urd -8.32 0.1843 -1.53
Food and beverages Gram: split -9.65 0.1151 -1.11
Food and beverages Dry chillies -2.53 0.4050 -1.02
Food and beverages Gram: whole -8.63 0.0885 -0.76
Food and beverages Carrot -6.16 0.1218 -0.75
Food and beverages Moong -2.89 0.2388 -0.69
Food and beverages Besan and Gram products -4.20 0.1239 -0.52
Food and beverages Lemon -3.53 0.1367 -0.48
Food and beverages Peas, chickpeas -8.25 0.0516 -0.43
Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance Air conditioner -6.03 0.0446 -0.27
Food and beverages Other pulses -4.08 0.0473 -0.19

Inflation vs Deflation — Top Drivers

Figure 10: Top 15 inflation and deflation contributors by weighted score

Methodology

  • Data source: CPI data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), base year 2024.
  • MoM Change: Month-on-month percentage change in the CPI index.
  • YoY Change: Year-on-year percentage change (Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025).
  • Contribution Score: YoY inflation (%) x item weight in the CPI basket — measures how much each item pushes headline inflation.
  • Weighted Median / Mean: Inflation statistics weighted by CPI basket shares, giving higher influence to items that matter more in household expenditure.